- New National Survey Reveals
FREETOWN, SIERRA LEONE | OCTOBER 2026
The political landscape ahead of Sierra Leone’s 2028 presidential election is beginning to take a more defined shape. And within the opposition All People’s Congress (APC), one name has emerged with unmistakable prominence: Sheikh Alhaji Mohamed Omodu Kamara, popularly known as Jagaban.
The latest edition of Sierra Leone’s Political Marathon, published in October 2026, presents one of the strongest statistical indications yet of Jagaban’s standing in the race for the APC presidential ticket.
Drawing on research involving 2,400 likely voters and 1,025 delegates from the APC and SLPP, the report places Jagaban comfortably ahead of his APC competitors across two crucial political constituencies: ordinary party supporters and convention delegates.
For a political party seeking to reclaim national leadership in 2028, the significance of these findings extends beyond individual popularity. They raise a fundamental question about the APC’s future: Could the party’s strongest opportunity lie in a candidate whose support appears to bridge the traditional divide between grassroots enthusiasm and internal party allegiance?
THE NUMBERS THAT ARE RESHAPING THE APC CONTEST
According to the report, Jagaban recorded 66.2% among ordinary APC supporters and 65.4% among APC delegates when respondents were asked to identify the candidate, they would be willing to vote for.
His combined score stands at an impressive 65.8%, substantially ahead of Dr Ibrahim Bangura at 26.2%, Dr Samura Kamara at 22.3%, and Chernor Ramadan Bah at 21.4%.
These figures represent a commanding advantage in the survey’s measures of candidate preference. But perhaps the most revealing aspect is not the size of Jagaban’s lead. It is the remarkable consistency of his support. The difference between his grassroots and delegate figures is just 0.8 percentage points.
In a political environment where popular enthusiasm does not always translate into delegate support, such consistency is particularly noteworthy.
Other aspirants demonstrate considerably wider differences between their standing among ordinary supporters and their appeal within the delegate structure.
Jagaban, by contrast, appears to enjoy a level of support that cuts across both groups. This alignment may prove strategically important, as the APC approaches its decisive flagbearer selection process.
FROM GRASSROOTS POPULARITY TO POLITICAL CREDIBILITY
Political popularity can be generated through visibility, public appearances and campaign activity. Sustained political credibility, however, requires something more substantial: the belief that a candidate possesses the capacity to address the challenges facing ordinary citizens.
On this question, the Political Marathon report delivers another significant finding.
When APC supporters were asked to identify the three aspirants best equipped to address the country’s priority issues, 71.9% selected Jagaban. Among APC delegates, he recorded an equally commanding 70.9%.
These results suggest that his standing is not confined to a willingness to support his candidacy. Respondents also associate him with the ability to respond to national challenges.
The distinction matters.
Sierra Leoneans are confronting difficult economic realities, including the rising cost of living, limited employment opportunities and persistent pressure on household incomes.
The survey found that 79.2% of likely voters identified the economy, jobs and cost of living among the two most important issues for the 2028 campaign. Among APC delegates, the figure was 73.4%.
For Jagaban, these findings create both an opportunity and a responsibility.
His philanthropic interventions, community development activities, support for small businesses and investment in party infrastructure provide a record that his supporters can point to. But the larger challenge will be demonstrating how these initiatives could inform sustainable national policies capable of addressing the concerns identified by voters.
The transition from private philanthropy to public policy will be one of the defining tests of his presidential ambitions.
A RISE THAT APPEARS TO BE GATHERING MOMENTUM
Another notable finding is the report’s comparison with the earlier Political Marathon survey conducted in December 2025. According to the researchers, Jagaban’s support among ordinary APC voters has increased by 14 percentage points. That movement suggests that his current position is not merely the continuation of an established support base. It indicates substantial growth over the period examined.
The development also invites closer attention to the political organisation surrounding his candidacy.
Across Sierra Leone, Jagaban has become associated with community outreach, grassroots mobilisation, support for party structures and initiatives aimed at improving livelihoods.
Through programmes such as J-IMPACT, which focuses on economic empowerment, and his contributions to APC infrastructure, he has sought to establish a political identity centered on practical intervention.
While the survey does not establish which activities caused his increased support, the relationship between sustained public engagement and political visibility deserves examination.
For any presidential aspirant, the ability to build recognition is important. Converting recognition into durable confidence is considerably more difficult.
The latest findings suggest that Jagaban has made significant progress in that direction.
THE DELEGATE QUESTION: WHERE POLITICAL AMBITION MEETS REALITY
The report also offers an important reminder about the nature of internal party politics. Delegates are not simply spectators in the flagbearer contest. They are the individuals entrusted with making the final choice.
According to the study, the APC has an estimated 1,915 convention delegates, with constituency representatives forming the largest single category.
The researchers surveyed 600 APC delegates as part of their investigation.
Their findings show Jagaban at 65.4% on willingness to vote for an aspirant, followed by Dr Ibrahim Bangura at 37.5%, Dr Richard Conteh at 28.3% and Bai Mahmoud Bangura at 27.8%.
The figures demonstrate Jagaban’s substantial lead, while also revealing meaningful competition among other aspirants.
Importantly, respondents were permitted to identify three candidates, meaning the percentages should not be interpreted as exclusive first-choice votes or a prediction of the final convention ballot.
The report itself acknowledges that delegate politics can be influenced by shifting alliances, personal relationships, political pressure and strategic considerations.
Consequently, Jagaban’s position, although strong, should not be mistaken for an election already won.
What the survey does establish is that he enters the next stage of the contest with a considerable advantage in expressed support.
The challenge will be to preserve that advantage through organisation, consultation and sustained engagement with the party’s structures.
THE APC’S BIGGER QUESTION: WHO CAN UNITE THE PARTY AND COMPETE NATIONALLY?
Beyond the immediate contest lies a more consequential question.
The APC is not selecting a flagbearer simply to win an internal election. It is choosing the individual who will carry the party’s presidential ambitions into the 2028 national contest.
That decision requires consideration of electability, organisational strength, party unity and the ability to articulate a credible alternative national development programme.
The Political Marathon findings suggest that Jagaban is exceptionally well positioned within the current APC field.
However, the responsibility that accompanies such a lead is equally significant.
A successful flagbearer must be capable of bringing together supporters of competing aspirants, respecting established party institutions and building confidence among those who may not have supported his candidacy.
The strength of any political movement is ultimately measured not only by the loyalty of its supporters, but also by its capacity to earn the confidence of others.
For Jagaban, this may be the next important chapter.
His growing prominence offers an opportunity to demonstrate that political strength and political inclusiveness can reinforce each other.
A united APC would require the experience of its established leaders, the energy of its younger generation, the commitment of its grassroots structures and the participation of Sierra Leoneans at home and abroad.
No aspirant, regardless of survey performance, can afford to overlook that reality.
FROM A SURVEY LEAD TO A NATIONAL VISION
The latest report presents Jagaban with something every serious presidential contender seeks: measurable evidence of substantial support.
But political leadership ultimately demands more than favourable polling.
It requires a clear vision for economic recovery, employment creation, agricultural productivity, education, healthcare, infrastructure and accountable governance.
These are the issues that will shape the national conversation as Sierra Leone moves closer to 2028.
The survey has identified the priorities of citizens with considerable clarity.
The next task for Jagaban will be to show how his leadership philosophy, business experience, philanthropic record and political organisation can be translated into a coherent national programme.
If he can successfully make that transition, his candidacy could evolve beyond a strong internal party movement into a broader national political proposition.
THE VERDICT: A FRONTRUNNER WITH AN OPPORTUNITY TO DEFINE THE FUTURE
Political surveys are snapshots, not final verdicts. Alliances may change, delegates may reconsider their preferences, and the contest will ultimately be settled through the APC’s established democratic procedures.
Nevertheless, the October 2026 Political Marathon report has delivered a significant message.
Mohamed Omodu Kamara, Jagaban, is the clear frontrunner in the APC flagbearer race according to the study’s principal measures of support.
His 65.8% combined score, the narrow difference between grassroots and delegate preferences, and the 14-percentage-point increase reported since December 2025, together paint a picture of a candidacy enjoying substantial momentum.
For the APC, these findings present an opportunity for serious reflection on the qualities, expectations and leadership direction that should define its preparations for 2028.
For Jagaban, they represent both recognition and responsibility.
Recognition of the support he has attracted.
Responsibility to demonstrate that this support can be translated into unity, credible policy and effective national leadership.
The road to 2028 remains long, and the final political decisions are still ahead.
But if the latest evidence is any indication, Jagaban is no longer simply one of the names in the APC presidential conversation. He is the candidate against whom the rest of the field is currently being measured.
And as Sierra Leone’s political marathon continues, that is a position of considerable significance.
